Containers are pictured stacked up at the port in Hong Kong before being loaded onto cargo ships on Oct 5, 2019. (ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP)
Hong Kong’s exports are expected to grow by about 74 percent this decade, increasing from the $539 billion last year to $939 billion in 2030, according to a report released by Standard Chartered.
The international banking group forecast that global exports will double from $17.4 trillion to $29.7 trillion while the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region will become a key driver for global export growth, with its exports growing at an average annual rate of almost 6 percent over the next 10 years.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region will become a key driver for global export growth, with its exports growing at an average annual rate of almost 6 percent over the next 10 years
Hong Kong is increasingly investing in technology and innovation. Among all the sectors, machinery and electrical products will dominate exports in 2030, with a share of about 70 percent, followed by metals and minerals, which will take up 5 percent of exports, according to the report.
Carmen Chan, head of trade and working capital at transaction banking department for Standard Chartered’s Greater China & North Asia region, said: “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalization is still working, despite recent dislocation.”
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“In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents. In particular, Hong Kong will continue to be a major international trade hub and benefit from the strong export growth of the Chinese mainland,” she added.
The report also indicated that about 30 percent of global corporations already source in Hong Kong or plan to start doing so within the next five to 10 years. The mainland, Japan and the US will be the leading export corridors for Hong Kong, with more than 4 percent of average annual growth from 2020 to 2030.
In addition, the mainland is the biggest growth driver for the global exports, with exports projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 7 percent to $5 trillion by 2030.
The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections through 2030, as well as insights from a survey of more than 500 C-Suite and senior leaders in global companies.
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In September, Hong Kong’s total exports for external merchandise trade reached HK$441.81 billion, increasing 16.5 percent compared with the previous year, according to the data compiled by the HKSAR government.
aoyulu@chinadailyhk.com